Episodes

Six months ago, the Fed dot plot was pointing toward rate cuts. The consensus on Wall Street, in academia, and in financial media was convergent: relief was coming for borrowers. Professor Edwin Burton saw it differently. In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Burton — one of the University of Virginia's most respected financial economists — returns to explain why that consensus has now fully reversed, and what it signals for the months ahead. The Fed held its target this week at 3...

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia on Fed meeting day — March 17, 2026. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold rates steady, and Professor Burton explains why there is no path to lower rates without triggering inflation. From there, the conversation ranges across the Iran war’s muted effect on oil markets, a dangerously weakening U.S. economy, and the deep structural vulnerabilities in both public equities and private credit. The episod...

With the Dow crossing 50,000 and AI capital spending reaching historic levels, are we in a bubble—or at the dawn of a new economic era? This week, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin Burton of the University of Virginia to unpack the real economics behind the AI hype. Professor Burton explains why the software sector got hammered after new AI coding tools launched, where AI truly excels (and where it’s dangerously overrated), and why the companies leading the AI race today may n...

Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to break down the most pressing economic issues of the moment: the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting, the meaning behind falling short-term rates and stubborn long-term rates, the fragility of today’s housing market, and whether the U.S. has already slipped into a debt spiral. Professor Burton also uncovers what’s really happening with global currency dynamics, the potential end of the current tariff regime, an...

In this episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, its implications for interest rates, and what the Fed can — and can’t — control. Professor Burton offers his signature mix of sharp humor and deep economic insight as he unpacks the paradox of record-breaking stock markets amid mass layoffs, explores historical lessons from the 1929 crash, and shares his contrarian view on U.S.–China trade...

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to break down the economic realities behind the AI boom. While tech companies are pouring billions into artificial intelligence, the rest of the economy is slowing — a trend masked by massive capital expenditures in data centers, chips, and defensive spending. Professor Burton explores whether AI is truly creating value or simply inflating numbers, w...

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton to break down the latest economic signals as the Federal Reserve heads into a pivotal meeting. With the S&P 500 topping 6,600 and Treasury yields hovering around 4%, the professor explains why he expects a 25-basis-point rate cut—and why a 50-point cut would create messy arbitrage opportunities. They also cover: The Fed’s balance-sheet strategy and how selling Treasuries actually raises rates Slow U.S...

In this Labor Day conversation, investor Hunter Craig and University of Virginia economist Professor Edwin Burton break down the latest forces shaping the U.S. economy. With the September 17 Federal Reserve meeting looming, the discussion covers where rates are headed, the real limits of Fed power, and the political tug-of-war over central bank independence. Professor Burton also shares sharp insights into America’s mounting deficit, the shaky ground under AI-driven capital expenditures, and wh...

In this sobering and thought-provoking episode, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin Burton of the University of Virginia to unpack the harsh economic realities we face as the national debt approaches $40 trillion. Together, they cover everything from university research incentives to runaway entitlement spending, inflation, and the limits of Federal Reserve intervention. With a mix of wit, clarity, and no-nonsense economic insight, Professor Burton breaks down the problems that ...

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton to unpack one of the most pressing economic topics of our time: tariffs. With political posturing, trade wars, and rising costs dominating the headlines, Professor Burton breaks down why tariffs are effectively a regressive sales tax that hits consumers the hardest — especially those with lower incomes. The conversation doesn’t stop at trade. Professor Burton also dissects recent inflation ...

As the S&P 500 hits record highs and inflation cools, you might think the U.S. economy is cruising. But Professor Edwin T. Burton returns to Rubber Meets the Road Economics with a more sobering take: the real warning signs are hiding in plain sight. In this episode, Professor Burton explains why the yield on the two-month Treasury is a more reliable predictor of Fed action than market sentiment—and why he thinks the economy may be heading toward a recession. He breaks down the pressures on U.S. ...

In this crucial episode, Hunter Craig speaks with Professor Edwin T. Burton about the alarming implications of recent U.S. tariff policies, market volatility, and America's mounting debt crisis. Professor Burton provides candid insights into why he believes markets have further to fall, the inherent dangers of current tariff strategies, and the troubling decline in foreign investment in U.S. Treasury auctions. Tune in for an eye-opening discussion about the true costs of tariffs, the urgent need...

In this episode, Professor Edwin Burton joins Hunter Craig to discuss the recent implementation of tariffs by the U.S. government and their far-reaching effects on the economy. They delve into who truly bears the cost of tariffs, the unprecedented market reactions, and the potential long-term consequences for both domestic and international financial landscapes. Episode Breakdown: Introduction: Overview of current economic climate and introduction to the topic of tariffs. Tariffs Explained: D...

As the U.S. deficit balloons toward $2 trillion annually and total national debt surpasses $36 trillion, the financial sustainability of government spending has never been more uncertain. Economist and UVA professor Edwin Burton joins host Hunter Craig to break down the underlying economic forces shaping America’s future. Topics Covered: ✅ The impact of rising debt and deficits on the economy ✅ How healthcare spending is driving the debt crisis ✅ The unintended consequences of government-run...

In Episode 16, Tariffs are back in the news. On February 1, 2025, the U.S. announced new tariffs on Canada and Mexico—only to delay them for 30 days. What does this mean for American businesses, workers, and consumers? In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the broader economic implications of trade policy. Professor Burton explains how free trade creates both winners and losers—boostin...

This week on Rubber Meets The Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss: Why the Fed Paused Rate Hikes – The real reason behind the Fed’s decision to hold steady and why Treasury Bill yields tell us everything we need to know. Treasury Bill Arbitrage Explained – A risk-free trade that could generate billions, if only the Fed allowed it. AI’s Market Disruption – How three Chinese developers just upended the tech industr...

In Episode 14 of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig sits down with renowned economist Professor Edwin T. Burton to discuss pressing economic issues, including the looming threat of debt spirals, the Federal Reserve’s role in interest rate policies, and the impact of tariffs on U.S. manufacturing. They dive into the complexities of reserve currencies, tariffs, and the challenges facing the U.S. economy as it grapples with inflation and rising debt. Key Topics Covered: What constitute...

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with the insightful Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the latest trends in the debt market, including the dramatic swings in U.S. Treasury yields. The conversation breaks down the complexities of supply and demand in economics, rising interest rates, and their implications on real estate and global markets. From debunking myths about interest rate inversion to understanding the h...

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton to unpack the latest shifts in the economic landscape. They delve into the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to lower the federal funds rate and its ripple effects on treasury yields, interest rates, and inflation. From the complexities of short-term treasury bill markets to the pressing issues surrounding the U.S. national debt and entitlement spending, this conversation illuminates the intricate connections shaping today’s economy....

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to decode the complexities of current economic policies and trends. In this episode, they explore the Federal Reserve’s behavior as a follower of market trends, the implications of shifting political agendas, and emerging concerns about AI and Bitcoin as economic bubbles. Professor Burton provides an insightful take on what lies ahead for the U.S. economy in 2025, making this episode a must-listen for ...

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to explore the forces driving today’s economic landscape. Together, they delve into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, the impact of tariffs on trade and manufacturing, and the complexities of government spending and national debt. Dr. Burton’s insights shine a light on critical economic policies and their implications for businesses, communities, and everyday citizens. Key Topics...

In this episode, Hunter Craig sits down with renowned economics professor Dr. Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to explore complex yet pressing issues in the U.S. economy. Together, they tackle the roots and realities of the U.S. debt crisis, the complications of the healthcare system, the limitations of Social Security, and the true impact of infrastructure spending on economic growth. Dr. Burton brings clarity to these critical topics, providing a deep dive into how economic poli...

In this episode of The Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to analyze the current economic landscape and the factors driving interest rates, inflation, and U.S. debt levels. They dive into the Fed’s anticipated rate adjustments, the impact of election outcomes on Treasury yields, and a masterclass in game theory as applied to economic decision-making. Professor Burton breaks down complex economic concept...

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig and Professor Edwin T. Burton dive into the potential economic crisis that may be on the horizon. They explore key economic signals like the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, the rise in Treasury yields, and the impact on mortgage rates. Together, they analyze whether these indicators point to an impending financial downturn and what it means for everyday Americans. Professor Burton sheds light on how market forces dictate these ...